How the 2024 Presidential Election Could Influence the Housing Market

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, many Americans are closely watching how the outcome could impact various aspects of their lives, including the housing market. The intersection of politics and real estate is a complex and often unpredictable one, but certain key factors tend to come into play whenever a new administration is elected or when existing policies are poised for change. Here’s a look at how the 2024 presidential election might influence the housing market.

1. Economic Policy and Interest Rates

The economic policies proposed by presidential candidates often have a direct impact on interest rates, which in turn influence the housing market. If the new administration prioritizes fiscal policies that lead to economic growth, we might see a rise in interest rates as the Federal Reserve seeks to control inflation. Higher interest rates generally mean higher mortgage rates, which can slow down home buying activity.

On the other hand, if economic policies are geared toward stimulating growth through lower interest rates, the housing market could see a boost, as lower mortgage rates make buying a home more affordable. The candidates' stances on economic issues, including tax policies and government spending, will be key indicators of how the housing market might respond.

2. Housing Affordability and Availability

Housing affordability has been a growing concern in many parts of the country, and it’s likely to be a significant issue in the 2024 election. Candidates may propose different approaches to address the housing crisis, from increasing the supply of affordable housing to offering tax incentives for first-time homebuyers.

If the elected administration prioritizes policies that increase housing affordability, such as expanding federal housing programs or providing subsidies, this could make homeownership more accessible to a broader segment of the population. Conversely, if housing policies favor deregulation and reduce government intervention, the market might see increased activity in the luxury home segment while affordable housing remains scarce.

3. Tax Policy Changes

Tax policies, particularly those related to property taxes and deductions for mortgage interest, can have a profound impact on the housing market. Changes in the tax code can alter the financial incentives for buying or selling a home.

For example, if the mortgage interest deduction is expanded, homeownership could become more attractive, driving demand in the housing market. However, if property taxes are increased or certain deductions are eliminated, the cost of homeownership could rise, potentially cooling the market.

4. Regulatory Environment

The regulatory environment surrounding real estate is another area where the 2024 election could have significant implications. Policies related to zoning, land use, and environmental regulations can either ease or complicate the process of building new homes, which in turn affects housing supply and prices.

An administration that favors deregulation might streamline the approval process for new developments, potentially leading to an increase in housing supply. On the other hand, stricter regulations could slow down new construction, leading to higher prices in areas where demand outstrips supply.

5. Consumer Confidence

Elections often influence consumer confidence, which can affect the housing market. Uncertainty about the future direction of the country can lead to hesitation among potential homebuyers, while a clear and favorable economic outlook can boost consumer confidence and, consequently, home buying activity.

If the election results in a stable and predictable economic environment, we might see an increase in home sales as buyers feel more secure in making long-term financial commitments. However, if the election results in significant economic uncertainty, the housing market could experience a slowdown as buyers take a wait-and-see approach.

Conclusion

While it’s impossible to predict exactly how the 2024 presidential election will impact the housing market, the policies and priorities of the new administration will undoubtedly play a crucial role. Homebuyers, sellers, and real estate professionals should stay informed about the candidates’ platforms and be prepared for potential shifts in the market as the election unfolds. Regardless of the outcome, understanding the connection between politics and real estate will be key to navigating the housing market in the coming years.

Cindy Coggins, REALTOR® - Team Lead

Cindy Coggins Realty Group, KW Allen

469-499-7452